A Short, Happy Message about Crime

PERCEPTION: “I CAN’T LET MY KIDS PLAY OUTSIDE — CRIME IS SOARING!”

REALITY: 2025 had “THE LARGEST ONE-YEAR DROP IN MURDER EVER RECORDED.”

So says the Substack Jeff-Alytics, the amazing resource run by crime analyst Jeff Asher. (I was going to say “crime enthusiast” but…no.)  Of course, 2025 is not quite over yet. But Jeff’s got most of this year’s numbers in, and he is finding that:

The drop in crime in 2025 continues a trend that began in 2023, accelerated in 2024, and likely became historic in 2025. A roughly 20 percent drop in murder in 2025, as is suggested by the current data, would be by far the largest decline ever recorded, eclipsing the decline in 2024 .

Here’s his heartening graph (it’s easier to read on his Substack):

You might be tempted to think, “Well, even if murder is down, it’s still way higher than when I was a kid!”

Here’s his graph since 1960. The red for 2025 is because it is not finalized yet:

And again, there’s a clearer picture over at the source, to whom I bow down.

In an era of not just the 24-hour news cycle (how quaint!) but constant pings in one’s pocket about the latest, worst thing ever —  SHARE NOW!  —  it is really hard to stay sane about how safe our kids are. And of course, they are never completely safe — not outside, not inside, not in school, not in their high chairs… No place or era is completely, 100% safe. But that doesn’t negate the fact that we are way safer from murder than we’ve been in our lifetime.

And that’s great news.